Weekly Market Update 08/28/2022
by Justin J. Long CFP®, on Aug 28, 2022
The final days of August bring us the last Nevada "back-to-school Monday", this time for UNLV students. Joining in the roughly 30,000 students who attend, 4,300 freshmen will join them tomorrow as a new set of Runnin' Rebels. All of us at Diazo are wishing you the best of luck!
UNLV's football team opened their season yesterday with a blowout win over Idaho State with a score of 52-21 at Allegiant Stadium. Winning was quite the theme at "The Death Star" this weekend, as the Raiders concluded their pre-season on Friday night with a win over the Patriots, 23-6. My sister-in-law and her boyfriend were down from Seattle to attend the game and visit with the boys, so it was a win in the Long house all the way around. How did you spend your weekend?
And now on to the recap of this week:
The week started with a thud and ended with an even bigger thud. The common catalyst was Fed Chair Powell's policy speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
On Monday, market participants were reportedly anxious that Mr. Powell's speech would sound resolutely hawkish. The S&P 500 declined 2.1% on Monday. On Friday, Mr. Powell sounded resolutely hawkish and the S&P 500 declined 3.4%, wiping out a half-hearted (and low volume) bounce off Monday's lows that was seen in the intervening sessions.
When the closing bell rang on Friday, the major indices were down 2.9-4.4% for the week. Just about everything got rolled back. The selling was indiscriminate, affecting stocks of all sizes, investment factors of all kinds, and countercyclical and cyclical sectors alike.
The only gainers of note on the week were the CBOE Volatility Index (+24.5%), oil prices (+3.0%), the S&P 500 energy sector (+4.3%), the U.S. Dollar Index (+0.6%), and the 30-yr bond (-2 bps to 3.21%).
The mega-cap stocks paced the broader market's losses. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was down 5.0% for the week after falling 4.1% in Friday's session alone. With their mega-cap constituents, the information technology (-5.6%), communication services (-4.8%), and consumer discretionary (-4.8%) sectors were the biggest laggards this week.
Heavy losses were seen across the market on Friday following a short and terse speech from Fed Chair Powell who made it clear the Fed will not be shifting to a rate-cut cycle anytime soon. On the contrary, Mr. Powell pointed out the need to take rates into restrictive territory and to hold them at higher levels for some time until the Fed is confident inflation is getting back down to the Federal Open Market Committee's 2 percent goal.
The Fed Chair openly acknowledged that the effort to reduce inflation "will also bring some pain to households and businesses" and that the "historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy."
The totality of his remarks were not surprising, but his terse manner was, as it suggested the Fed is not going to pander to the stock market's interest rate wishes -certainly not at this juncture anyway with the inflation rate still well above the Fed's target.
Notably, Friday's session started with some welcome inflation news. The PCE Price Index and core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, both moderated in July. They were up 6.3% and 4.6% year-over-year, respectively, versus 6.8% and 4.8% in June.
That was not enough, though, to make the market feel comfortable, especially since Fed Chair Powell said in his speech that "while lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down."
The discomfort was evident in what amounted to a trend-down day after some initial volatility on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would shed more than 1,000 points as part of a washout that saw the major indices decline between 3.0-3.9% on Friday.
The Treasury market, which had already been under pressure at the thought of a more hawkish-minded Fed, held its ground better in the wake of Mr. Powell's speech. The 2-yr note yield rose just one basis point to 3.40% and the 10-yr note also rose just one basis point to 3.04%. They were up 15 basis points and five basis points for the week, respectively. When the month started, the 2-yr note yield stood at 2.90% and the 10-yr note yield stood at 2.64%.
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As always, it is my pleasure to bring you this weekly update. If this or anything else is causing you pause or you would like further details, please feel free to reach out to me and we can schedule some time to chat.
Justin J. Long CFP®
Diazo Wealth Group
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Source: 1. FactSet
Source: Week in perspective provided by Briefing.com. Briefing.com offers live market analysis on their web site www.Briefing.com.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (bps). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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