The holiday season is in full swing! This week we took the time one evening to check out the World of Illumination at the M Resort with the kids and I would defintiely say this is a must-do for the holiday season (Click read more to see a short video)! As the year comes to an end, please keep an eye out for our email next week that will talk a little about year-end planning and what we can all do to ensure the most effective end-of-year for our plans. How is your holiday season so far and what are some of your plans for the coming weeks?
And now onto the weekly recap:
The major indices closed the week with modest gains. There was not a lot of conviction from either buyers or sellers due in part to a growing sense that the market is overbought on a short-term basis. For the S&P 500, Friday's close at 4,604 marked an 11.8% rise off its October 27 low (4,117) and set a new 52-week high for the index.
Relative strength in the mega cap stocks helped the S&P 500 eke out a 0.2% gain while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) closed little changed from last Friday. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed with a 0.9% gain. Alphabet (GOOG) was a winning standout from the space, gaining 2.5% on the week after jumping more than 5.0% during Thursday's session following its Gemini AI model reveal.
That move helped propel the communication services sector to a 1.4% gain this week. The consumer discretionary sector was another top performer, climbing 1.1%. Meanwhile, the energy sector saw the largest decline (-3.3%) as oil prices dropped 3.5% to $71.18/bbl. The materials (-1.7%) and consumer staples (-1.3%) sectors also registered noticeable declines.
Market participants were dealing with some crosscurrents this week. Renewed concerns about global growth emerged after Moody's downgraded China's credit outlook to Negative from Stable, which was tied in part to concerns about structurally weaker growth prospects, and the October JOLTS - Job Openings Report showed the lowest number of job openings (8.733 million) since March 2021.
Other economic data, however, fit with the soft-landing narrative for the economy. That was good news for earnings, but may be bad news for rate-cut expectations. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for November rose to 52.7% from 51.8%, the weekly jobless claims numbers remain consistent with a robust labor market, the November Employment Situation report was deemed solid overall, and the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December was stronger than expected.
The fed funds futures market is no longer pricing in a rate cut in March following this week's data, but it still sees a strong likelihood of a cut in May (78.5% on Friday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Treasuries settled the week with losses, largely in response to the release of the jobs report on Friday. The 2-yr note yield climbed 18 basis points to 4.74% and the 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 4.25%. This price action put some renewed pressure on the 2s 10s spread, which tightened by 16 bps to -49 bps.
In other news, cryptocurrencies made big moves higher this week, leaving Bitcoin at $44,241.
Below are truncated summaries of the daily action this week:
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (bps). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.